Dynamics of Refugee Return: Syrian Refugees and Their Migration Intentions

Join us to hear from Daniel Masterson (Political Science, UCSB) about the dynamics of Syrian refugees and their migration intentions.
Despite the importance of understanding how refugee crises end, little is known about when and why refugees return home. We study the drivers of refugees’ decision-making using original observational and experimental data from a representative sample of 3,003 Syrian refugees in Lebanon. We find that conditions in a refugee’s home country are the primary drivers of return intentions. Refugees’ decisions are influenced primarily by safety and security in their place of origin, their economic prospects, the availability of public services, and their personal networks. Confidence in information is also important, as several drivers of return only impact intentions among people who have high confidence in their information. By contrast, the conditions in hosting countries––so-called “push” factors––play a much smaller role. Even in the face of hostility and poor living conditions, refugees are unlikely to return unless the situation at home improves significantly.

Join us at bit.ly/CMESZoomTalks (Zoom ID: 843 7437 3779)

Bio: Daniel Masterson is an assistant professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of California, Santa Barbara. His research explores conflict between refugees and host communities, refugee decision-making about when and where to migrate, and how refugees cooperate in order to support themselves, with a regional focus in the Middle East. Daniel’s work has appeared in the American Political Science Review and the Journal of Conflict Resolution. From 2018 to 2020 Daniel was a postdoctoral fellow at the Immigration Policy Lab at Stanford University. He received his PhD in political science from Yale University in May 2018. He also holds a BA from Bates College and a Master in Public Policy from Harvard Kennedy School.

Co-sponsored by the UCSB Identity Politics Workshop.